Daily

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Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day

  • (blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

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Wisconsin

Active

Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.

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Wisconsin

By the Numbers

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Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
August 19 2020 679 16560 4 91 148
August 20 2020 687 16581 4 97 146
August 21 2020 699 16716 4 103 136
August 22 2020 706 16918 6 94 132
August 23 2020 722 17056 6 93 134
August 24 2020 728 17271 6 83 138
August 25 2020 737 17374 6 83 141

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
August 19 2020 284 11221 0 54 71
August 20 2020 288 11342 0 49 70
August 21 2020 293 11401 0 52 70
August 22 2020 293 11458 0 49 66
August 23 2020 301 11538 0 49 71
August 24 2020 302 11610 0 43 63
August 25 2020 304 11638 0 38 63

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
August 19 2020 343 6815 3 50 70
August 20 2020 346 6819 3 51 70
August 21 2020 347 6827 3 51 65
August 22 2020 353 6860 3 45 62
August 23 2020 358 6860 3 43 65
August 24 2020 358 6863 3 38 63
August 25 2020 359 6867 3 36 63

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
August 19 2020 67493 1084163 1060 6939 10553
August 20 2020 68233 1093294 1067 7172 10454
August 21 2020 69059 1103038 1068 7274 10291
August 22 2020 70009 1110788 1081 7746 10076
August 23 2020 70462 1115149 1081 7256 9908
August 24 2020 70854 1119622 1081 6627 9793
August 25 2020 71492 1128971 1094 6436 9707

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Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level. Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan) and SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based off of reference:

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 -- urge extra caution
> 28 > 40 decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 40 steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing '' '' ''
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7
9.9 3.3 5.1

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7
13.9 3.3 5.4

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7
16.7 30.7 666 779.9

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
  • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 24.4 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.35 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-09-15 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1190"

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