Important dates:
(purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day
(blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 19 2020 | 679 | 16560 | 4 | 91 | 148 |
| August 20 2020 | 687 | 16581 | 4 | 97 | 146 |
| August 21 2020 | 699 | 16716 | 4 | 103 | 136 |
| August 22 2020 | 706 | 16918 | 6 | 94 | 132 |
| August 23 2020 | 722 | 17056 | 6 | 93 | 134 |
| August 24 2020 | 728 | 17271 | 6 | 83 | 138 |
| August 25 2020 | 737 | 17374 | 6 | 83 | 141 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 19 2020 | 284 | 11221 | 0 | 54 | 71 |
| August 20 2020 | 288 | 11342 | 0 | 49 | 70 |
| August 21 2020 | 293 | 11401 | 0 | 52 | 70 |
| August 22 2020 | 293 | 11458 | 0 | 49 | 66 |
| August 23 2020 | 301 | 11538 | 0 | 49 | 71 |
| August 24 2020 | 302 | 11610 | 0 | 43 | 63 |
| August 25 2020 | 304 | 11638 | 0 | 38 | 63 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 19 2020 | 343 | 6815 | 3 | 50 | 70 |
| August 20 2020 | 346 | 6819 | 3 | 51 | 70 |
| August 21 2020 | 347 | 6827 | 3 | 51 | 65 |
| August 22 2020 | 353 | 6860 | 3 | 45 | 62 |
| August 23 2020 | 358 | 6860 | 3 | 43 | 65 |
| August 24 2020 | 358 | 6863 | 3 | 38 | 63 |
| August 25 2020 | 359 | 6867 | 3 | 36 | 63 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 19 2020 | 67493 | 1084163 | 1060 | 6939 | 10553 |
| August 20 2020 | 68233 | 1093294 | 1067 | 7172 | 10454 |
| August 21 2020 | 69059 | 1103038 | 1068 | 7274 | 10291 |
| August 22 2020 | 70009 | 1110788 | 1081 | 7746 | 10076 |
| August 23 2020 | 70462 | 1115149 | 1081 | 7256 | 9908 |
| August 24 2020 | 70854 | 1119622 | 1081 | 6627 | 9793 |
| August 25 2020 | 71492 | 1128971 | 1094 | 6436 | 9707 |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level. Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan) and SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based off of reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | -- | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 40 | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 40 | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | '' '' '' |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13.8 | 40.2 | 9.1 | 11.7 |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 |
|---|---|---|
| 9.9 | 3.3 | 5.1 |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 |
|---|---|---|
| 13.9 | 3.3 | 5.4 |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16.7 | 30.7 | 666 | 779.9 |
Important Resources:
https://topic.newsbreak.com/covid-19.html?zip=19934&s=dmg_local_briefing.web2
Re-opening Trends: that is, why didn't the first wave end?
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 24.4 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.35 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-09-15 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1190"